The lockdown was previewed as a 'Junta Curfew' on the 22nd of March 2020 and what a day it was. India's first experience with a voluntary lockdown in the wake of the Covid-19 Pandemic and an experiment of compliance and discipline.

The Junta Curfew was a mandated stay at home and it was largely welcomed by all as it was a one-off and did not interfere with people's lives. People were happy to comply, but it was only a preview of things to come. To be fair, everyone understood that India would have to take drastic measures in order to deal with Covid-19 simply because of the population, demographic, healthcare and economic constraints it has.

As we have all seen, the actual lockdown was initiated just a couple of days later, though people were braced for it, on the 25th of March 2020 and it has been extended from the 14th of April to the 3rd of May (with a partial lift in low-risk areas; effectively areas away from densely populated cities). It may yet get further extended.

Much has been written on India's economic impact because of this lockdown and how India has sacrificed economics to save lives while other countries have prioritized economies over lives. I'm however optimistic and have a different view.

As the pandemic has spread across the world, we've seen the havoc it has created and the sheer destruction of economics and life it has brought about. It would be fair to say that any country that decided to prioritize economics has lost both lives and any economic benefit they were attempting to preserve.

India on the other hand has become a shining example of how to deal with the pandemic despite obvious constraints. Case counts are significantly lower than other countries and given the population density, the numbers are incredibly low. of course, the numbers will continue to rise and India could do a better job with contact tracing and testing. But what India has done well is to contain the peak and thereby reduce the load on healthcare and essential services. The lockdown has bought time and the time has been used well to ensure that we gear up for the inevitable challenges that lie ahead.

This post from Prof. Shamika Ravi shows, "While India is still in the growth phase of this pandemic, the speed is slowing considerably. Growth rate of Active cases is now 5.1%, so they are doubling every 14 days."

If you zoom into the Image, the real number to see is that what-if scenario: without the bans, Indian would have potentially had over 8,50,000 cases. {Credit:https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1253955127439958016}

It's quite clear that the lockdown has come at a tremendous cost but has without doubt saved hundreds of thousands of people and has in turn allowed the healthcare system to focus on those that needs critical care and treatment. Without the lockdown, the whole system would have simply been overloaded and flooded.

COST OR INVESTMENT?

The lockdown has come at a cost. Should we really be looking at it as a cost or an investment in the new world order. One can always argue that India should have been better prepared, had better infrastructure, better care, better everything but that's an attempt to change history and we all know that is not possible. I'm not trying to predict the future, rather just putting out some very personal views which shall in time either be validated or proved wrong conclusively.

This pandemic is far from over and the cascading effects that it shall trigger are yet to come to the fore, simply because people are too busy dealing with the Virus at the moment. Once we (hopefully) overcome the virus, we are sure to do a root cause analysis and I believe that it's not going to be a pretty picture. A lot of blaming will do the rounds and people and countries will be forced to pick sides.

The economies of the past and the superpowers of yester-years will have been comprehensively challenged and market dynamics will change dramatically as well. Globalization and Just-in-Time principles will be replaced with localization and Inventory Management. Population demographics of many countries will undergo a paradigm shift and the sheer scale of wealth destruction, loss of job, devaluation of assets will be mind boggling.

In this new world order, there will be winners and losers. India with it's current strategy and ability to stay neutral has obvious potential. In all likelihood, India will have much lower loss of lives compared to other nations and will be able to bounce back quicker. India should also be in a good position to offer an alternative manufacturing as well as consumption market to the world. The current government regime has made full use of its mandate to act with an iron fist and while I'm not really a fan of that strategy, it's times like these when an iron fist is needed.

These and many more indicators lead me to view the cost of the lockdown as an investment in the future of India and while we may see more destruction before we see progress, I remain optimistic and hopeful that India will come out of this pandemic with lessons learnt and hopefully a stronger, better place in the new world order. At the same time, I sincerely pray and hope that this pandemic is controlled swiftly at a global level and a cure/vaccine is found as soon as possible.

In the mean time, as we struggle to maintain equilibrium and act with speed to solve problems, I leave you with a few wise words:

"If you can keep your head when all about you  Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,...

If you can fill the unforgiving minute

With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,  

Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,  

And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!" .

--"IF" by Rudyard Kipling

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